Will You Have Enough to Retire?
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio annually in retirement with low risk of running out. This calculator estimates how much you need to save, how long your money will last, and whether you are on track.
How Much Do You Need to Retire?
This is the inverse of the 4% rule. If you want $60,000/year in retirement, you need $1,500,000 saved.
The 4% Rule - Origins and Limitations
The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study (1998), which analyzed historical returns. It assumes:
- A 50-75% stock / 25-50% bond portfolio
- 30-year retirement
- Withdrawals adjusted for inflation each year
- US historical returns (which may not repeat)
For longer retirements (40+ years) or lower return environments, a 3.5% withdrawal rate is safer.
Worked Example: 30 Years to Retirement
- Current age: 35
- Retirement age: 65
- Current savings: $100,000
- Monthly contribution: $1,500
- Assumed return: 7%
- Projected balance at 65: $2,000,000
- Safe annual withdrawal (4%): $80,000
Social Security in Your Retirement Plan
Social Security replaces about 40% of pre-retirement income for average earners. Full retirement age (FRA) is 67 for anyone born after 1960.
| Claiming Age | Benefit (% of FRA) |
|---|---|
| 62 | 70% |
| 65 | 86.7% |
| 67 (FRA) | 100% |
| 70 | 124% |
Delaying from 62 to 70 increases your benefit by 77% - often the best "investment" available.
Retirement Savings Benchmarks by Age
| Age | Target (× salary) |
|---|---|
| 30 | 1× |
| 35 | 2× |
| 40 | 3× |
| 45 | 4× |
| 50 | 6× |
| 55 | 7× |
| 60 | 8× |
| 67 | 10× |
Frequently Asked Questions
How much do I need to retire comfortably?
Most planners recommend 25x your desired annual spending. For $60k/year, that is $1.5M.
What is the 4% rule?
A safe withdrawal rate where you take 4% of your portfolio in year 1 and adjust for inflation each year. Historically supports a 30-year retirement.
When should I claim Social Security?
For most people, age 70 maximizes lifetime benefits. Claiming at 62 reduces your check by 30%.
Is $1 million enough to retire?
In most US cities, yes - but tight if you want $50k+/year with a long horizon. $1.5-2M is safer.
What if the market crashes when I retire?
Sequence-of-returns risk is real. Keep 1-2 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds to avoid selling in a downturn.
Should I pay off my mortgage before retiring?
Often yes - it lowers required income and reduces stress. But if the rate is low, investing the difference may work better.